Prediction markets have treated the House as the likelier Democratic pickup all year, and by October 19, 2026 the price had reached about 91%: Kalshi 90.2¢, Polymarket 92¢. Democrats need a net gain of about three seats for the 218-seat majority. The open question for traders is less the House than the Senate, which shows up in the balance-of-power contracts.
Snapshot, October 19, 2026
| Market | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats win the House | 90.2¢ | 92¢ |
| Republicans win the House | 11¢ | 9¢ |
Kalshi's Democratic House price was 76% on May 27.
Balance of power
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats win both chambers | 63.5¢ | 62.5¢ |
| Democratic House, Republican Senate | 28.5¢ | 27.5¢ |
| Republicans win both | 10.5¢ | 8.5¢ |
| Republican House, Democratic Senate | 0.75¢ | 0.95¢ |
Last-trade prices. The four outcomes add to roughly 100%, as they should.
The toss-ups
Cook Political Report rates 21 House races as Toss Ups:
- Republican-held (15): AZ-06, CA-22, CO-08, IA-02 (open), MI-04, MI-07, MI-10 (open), NC-11 (open), NY-17, OH-07, PA-08, TX-15, VA-01, VA-02, WI-03.
- Democratic-held (6): FL-14, FL-22 (open), FL-25, NC-01, OH-09, TX-34.
Cook's most likely outcome is 224 to 234 Democratic seats.
How the contracts settle
- Kalshi: can settle early on a consensus of media projections; otherwise on the Speaker's party as of February 1, 2027.
- Polymarket: the party that wins 218 seats; if neither does, the party of the first elected Speaker. Members count for the party they were elected under, and independents who caucus with a party can count toward it.
Trading it
Politics contracts carry a 4% taker rate on Polymarket and 7% on Kalshi, applied as rate × P × (1 − P); resting (maker) orders are free on both. Election markets are blocked on Kalshi in Washington and Nevada; see legality by state.
Sources: DefiRate House control odds (Oct 19, 2026, 1:10 PM ET), including Cook Political Report ratings cited there. Not a recommendation.