Prediction markets, explained by someone who reads the fee schedules.

Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig and the rest: what they are, what they cost, where they're legal, and which promo code actually pays. No hype, sources on every page.

Today's board

Is Kalshi legit?Yes 95¢5¢

Is Novig federally regulated?Yes 95¢5¢

Are prediction markets gambling?Yes 50¢No 50¢

Every page on this site ends with a price like this: our confidence, in cents, the way these markets quote it.

Start here

The questions people actually type into Google, answered in the order you need them.

• What is a prediction market?Contracts, cents and why the price is a probability. Start here if you've never traded one.
• Is Kalshi legit?Regulated since 2020, pays out, enforces its rules. Here's the evidence and the caveats.
• How does Kalshi work?From sign-up to payout: contracts, order types, fees and settlement, step by step.
• Kalshi fees explainedThe formula, a table by price, maker vs taker, and what it does to your break-even.
• Is Kalshi gambling?Exchange or sportsbook? The courts are split. The state of play, with dates.
• How old do you have to be to use Kalshi?18, not 21. Why the age is lower than a sportsbook and how it's verified.
• Can you parlay on Kalshi?Yes, they're called combos. How they're built, priced and where they differ from a sportsbook parlay.
• Kalshi taxes: what you get and what to do with itThe four 1099 forms Kalshi can send, the PnL statement, and the unsettled question of how contracts are taxed.
• What slippage means on KalshiWhy your order filled at a worse price, what volume really measures, and how to avoid both problems.
• What is Polymarket?The biggest prediction market on earth: how it works, why it's on crypto, and how it came back to the US.
• Who owns Polymarket?Shayne Coplan's private company, with ICE as the big backer. Not publicly traded.
• Is Polymarket legal in the US?Yes via the regulated US app, no via the global site. Where it's blocked and why.
• Can you parlay on Polymarket?Yes, in the US app, as combos of up to 10 legs. How they're built, priced and where they're off.
• How to use PolymarketSign-up, deposit, first trade, selling early, and how long withdrawals take, for both versions.

Platform reviews

One page per platform: regulation, fees on a real trade, deposits, withdrawals, who it suits.

• Kalshi reviewThe first CFTC-regulated prediction market. Fees, funding, legality and the rough edges.
• Polymarket reviewThe world's biggest prediction market, now back in the US as a regulated app. What changed and what it costs.
• Novig reviewSports only, 21+, free pre-game trades, 47 states. The newest regulated exchange, reviewed.

Head to head

Two platforms, the same questions, one table.

• Kalshi vs PolymarketFees on a real trade, markets, legality and liquidity. Which one for politics, sports, macro and crypto.
• Novig vs KalshiSports-only newcomer vs the incumbent. Fees, parlays, age, states, liquidity.

Is it legal where you live?

Prediction markets are federally regulated, but states are fighting back. Pick your state.

• Is Kalshi legal in California?Yes, and so are Polymarket and Novig, in a state with no sportsbooks. The tribal lawsuit, explained.
• Is Kalshi legal in Texas?Yes, all three platforms work in Texas, the biggest state without sportsbooks. What the legislature is doing.
• Is Kalshi legal in Washington state?Only partly: sports, politics and entertainment markets are geofenced in WA; economics still trades. The details.
• Is Kalshi legal in Florida?Yes, all three work in Florida with no enforcement so far. The Seminole monopoly is the wildcard.
• Is Kalshi legal in New York?Yes for now, with an AG alert, a CFTC lawsuit, a class action and a bill all in play. The details.

Promo and referral codes

Only codes that are live and verified. We note the date on every one.

• Kalshi referral code and sign-up bonusWhat the offer is, how to apply a code, the 72-hour rule and the strings attached to bonus credits.
• Polymarket invite code and promoDo you still need an invite code for the US app, what the bonus has been, and the terms attached.
• Novig promo code and welcome credits$25–$50 in trade credits for a $10 deposit. The price cap, expiry and who qualifies.