North Carolina is the Senate race prediction markets are most sure about. With Republican Thom Tillis retiring, former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper faces Michael Whatley, the Trump-endorsed former Republican National Committee chair. On October 19, 2026 Kalshi had Cooper at about 96%, well above what the major forecasters' ratings imply, after polls showed him ahead by double digits.
Snapshot, October 19, 2026
| Market | Price |
|---|---|
| Kalshi: Roy Cooper (D) wins | 96¢ |
| Kalshi: Michael Whatley (R) wins | 4¢ |
One of the more heavily traded Senate contracts on Kalshi, at roughly 3.5 million contracts.
Polls
| Pollster | Dates | Cooper | Whatley |
|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA (WRAL/WSOC) | Oct 7–11 | 54% | 40% |
| Elon University | Sept (released Sep 10) | 49% | 38% |
The SurveyUSA poll also found President Trump's approval among likely North Carolina voters at 37%, against 60% disapproval.
Market vs forecasters
Cook Political Report rates the race Likely Democratic; Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate it Lean Democratic. Those ratings usually correspond to something like 70–85%, not 96%. Either traders are reading the October polls more aggressively, or the market is overconfident. At 96¢ the risk is asymmetric: the Yes side risks 96¢ to make 4¢, so read the odds as a probability, not a sure thing.
Trading it
Politics contracts carry a 4% taker rate on Polymarket and 7% on Kalshi, applied as rate × P × (1 − P); resting (maker) orders are free on both. Election markets are blocked on Kalshi in Washington and Nevada; see legality by state.
Sources: PredictionMarketsPicks North Carolina Senate tracker (Kalshi, Oct 19, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC); WRAL/WSOC SurveyUSA poll (Oct 13, 2026). Not a recommendation.