Ohio's special Senate election fills the rest of the term JD Vance left when he became vice president. Republican Jon Husted has held the seat by appointment since January 2025; former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is trying to win it. On October 19, 2026 Kalshi had Brown at 66%, up 6 points in a week, helped by strong Democratic early voting.
Snapshot, October 19, 2026
| Market | Price |
|---|---|
| Kalshi: Sherrod Brown (D) wins | 66¢ |
| Kalshi: Jon Husted (R) wins | ~36¢ |
Why this race exists
Vance resigned on January 10, 2025. Gov. Mike DeWine appointed his lieutenant governor, Jon Husted, and the seat goes to voters in a special election on November 3, 2026, alongside the regular midterms. Husted was unopposed in the May 5 Republican primary; Brown won the Democratic primary with 89%.
Polls
| Pollster | Dates | Brown | Husted |
|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | Oct 5–6 | 43% | 44% |
| CNN/SSRS | Sep 29–Oct 5 | 49% | 43% |
| NYT/Siena | Sep 22–Oct 1 | 49% | 46% |
| Bowling Green State/YouGov | Sep 1–10 | 48% | 45% |
Early voting
About eight days into early voting, roughly 230,000 Ohioans had voted. Democrats made up 41% of early voters, against 26% at the same point in 2024; Republicans were at 28%, down from 36%. Early-vote composition isn't a forecast, since Republicans increasingly vote on Election Day, but it is what traders were reacting to.
The money
Fairshake, the crypto industry's super PAC, committed $30 million against Brown in September, its largest 2026 commitment. Brown chaired the Senate Banking Committee during earlier crypto legislation fights, which is why this race is also tied to the CLARITY Act story.
Trading it
Politics contracts carry a 4% taker rate on Polymarket and 7% on Kalshi, applied as rate × P × (1 − P); resting (maker) orders are free on both. Election markets are blocked on Kalshi in Washington and Nevada; see legality by state.
Sources: DefiRate Senate odds tracker (Kalshi, Oct 19, 2026); Kalshi News, Ohio Senate odds (Oct 15, 2026); Wikipedia, 2026 United States Senate special election in Ohio; DefiRate CLARITY Act fact sheet (Fairshake). Not a recommendation.