Super Bowl LXI is in February 2027, and on October 15, 2026 the prediction markets had an unusually flat field: the 49ers at about 13%, Bills 12%, Rams 11%, Chiefs 10%, Ravens and Seahawks 8%, Jaguars 7%, with the Bears, Bengals and Vikings around 4%. On an exchange, those percentages are prices: buy the 49ers at 13¢ and get $1 if they win. Unlike a sportsbook futures board, the whole field adds up to about 100%, and you can sell your contract any Sunday the price moves.
Snapshot, October 15, 2026
| Team | Kalshi | Polymarket | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 13.5% | 12.6% | 13% |
| Buffalo Bills | 11.5% | 11.5% | 12% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9.5% | 9.85%* | 10% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 8.5% | 7.85%* | 8% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.5% | 7.05% | 7% |
| Chicago Bears | 4.5% | 3.45%* | 4% |
* flagged as a stale quote at snapshot time. Cincinnati and Minnesota also around 4%. Prices move every game; this is a dated snapshot.
How the contract works
Each team is a Yes/No market: "Will the 49ers win Super Bowl LXI?" Buy Yes at 13¢; if they win, each contract pays $1 (87¢ profit before fees); if not, it expires at $0. Because every team's Yes contract is on the same board, the Yes prices sum to about 100% plus the spread. A sportsbook's futures board for the same teams typically implies 120–130% because the margin is built into every price. That gap is the structural reason exchange futures pay more.
Selling early
You don't have to hold to February. Buy the Jaguars at 7¢ in October; if they're 8–1 by December and trade at 15¢, sell. A sportsbook future is locked (or cashed out at the book's price). This also means you can hedge a contract you bought in the summer against the team you now fear.
Fees
Sports takers pay 5% × P × (1 − P) on Polymarket, 7% on Kalshi, nothing pre-game on Novig; makers are free everywhere. At 13¢ the fee is well under a cent per contract, but as a share of a 13¢ stake it's several percent, so use resting orders when buying longshots. See Kalshi fees and Polymarket fees.
Where you can and can't
Kalshi: everywhere but Nevada, Michigan and Washington for sports. Polymarket US: not Nevada, sports restricted in several states. Novig: 47 states, 21+. ProphetX: not Nevada, 19+. FanDuel Predicts and DraftKings Predictions: sports contracts only where online sportsbooks aren't legal. Full map in legality by state.
Snapshot per DefiRate's Super Bowl odds tracker (Oct 15, 2026, 11:39 AM ET). Not a recommendation.